A discussion with Josh Miller, Assistant Professor of Decision Science at Bocconni University in Italy, about his and Adam Sanjurjo’s recent work which has seemingly reversed the findings of 30 years of research on performance streaks in sports. Their work provides pretty convincing evidence that the hot hand is not a fallacy or illusion after all. I try (and fail) to explain the sampling bias they identified in my own words. In addition we discuss performance under pressure, how athletes know a teammate is hot or not, slumps and the future of research in this area.
More information about my guest:
Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?
Surprised by the Gambler’s and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers
Collection of reactions to Josh and Adam’s papers
The Flamin’ Groovies – Shake Some Action
Lo Fi is Hi Fi – I’m on a Talk Show
Mark Lanegan – Saint Louis Elegy