Does Monty Hall Have a Hot Hand?

For those that enjoyed my episode on the Hot Hand in Sports (Episode 12) and my follow-up interview with Josh Miller that seems to have completely changed our thinking about this (Episode 15C), Josh was kind enough to send me links to some more recent work he and Adam Sanjurjo have done trying to provide a more “common sense” explanation of the sampling bias they uncovered. In particular, they have tried to connect the hot hand with the game show “Let’s Make a Deal” hosted by Monty Hall. Should you choose door #2? How likely are you to get the donkey?



Find the full paper here:
A Bridge from Monty Hall to the (Anti-)Hot Hand: Restricted Choice, Selection Bias, and Empirical Practice