A preview of some exciting new research I will be presenting at #ICPA26 in a couple of weeks. https://icpa2026omaha.com/
**Please reach out if you would like more details

Critical Fluctuations as an Early Warning Signal for Injuries in Baseball Pitchers

Rob Gray

Introduction: Arm injuries in pitchers continue to be a serious problem in professional baseball¹. Ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstruction surgeries in the major leagues rose from 21 in 2010 to 46 in 2024. In minor league baseball, UCL procedures rose from 83 in 2010 to 240 in 2024. The goal of the present study was to conduct a proof-of-concept test² to evaluate the possibility of using critical fluctuations (i.e., destabilization in coordination variables) as early warning signalsfor arm injuries in baseball pitchers. Methods: Three college baseball pitchers with a history of arm injuries and two pitchers with no injury history were tracked across the course of the ’24 season. Marker less motion capture data from each game started (min. 70 pitches) and during bullpen sessions between starts were used to calculate the Hurst exponent, sample entropy, and the index of synergy. Pitch flight data (velocity, spin, and pitch movement) and subjective ratings of pain and perceived exertion were also collected. Results: 3/5 participating pitchers (two with previous injury history, one without) were placed on the injury list (IL) with arm issues during the course of the season. For these three pitchers, there were significant changes in the three coordination measures (on average 3.6 games) before being placed on the IL. Consistent with previous research³, significant changes in the pitch parameters (e.g., a decrease in fastball velocity) were not detected until the player’s final start before being placed on the IL. There were no significant changes in any of the variables for the two pitchers who did not go on the IL. Discussion: Overall, the pattern of results is consistent with a dynamical systems model of sports injury⁴, in which changes in coordination (e.g., muscles playing different roles in a motor synergy) precede both declines in performance and major injury.  Implications for understanding coordination in baseball pitching and how these variables might be used to mitigate injury risk will be discussed.

References:

1. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/is-velocity-really-the-culprit-behind-rising-baseball-injuries/
2. Neumann at al (2024). Critical fluctuations as an early warning signal of sports injuries? A proof of concept using football monitoring data. Sports Medicine-Open, 10(1), 129.
3. Dillon et al (2025). Using Pitch-Tracking Metrics to Identify Warning Signs Immediately Prior to Acute Ulnar Collateral Ligament Injuries in Major League Baseball Players. Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, 13(12), 23259671251389226.
4. Pol e al (2019). From microscopic to macroscopic sports injuries. Applying the complex dynamic systems approach to sports medicine: a narrative review. British journal of sports medicine, 53(19), 1214-1220.